Prediction Accuracy Comparison

Overall ELO Accuracy

↑ Accuracy across all predicted games

When compared on games with AP Poll rankings:

ELO System

AP Poll

ELO Advantage

Both Systems Correct

Games both predicted right

ELO Only Correct

ELO right, AP wrong

AP Only Correct

AP right, ELO wrong

Both Systems Wrong

Neither predicted correctly

Accuracy Over Time

Games Where Systems Disagreed

Games where ELO and AP Poll predicted different winners

Week	Matchup	ELO Predicted	AP Predicted	Actual Winner	Result

How It Works

ELO Predictions

Our ELO system generates predictions based on team ratings, strength of schedule, and home field advantage. Higher-rated teams are predicted to beat lower-rated teams.

Objective mathematical model
Accounts for opponent strength
Win probability calculations
Updates continuously

AP Poll "Predictions"

The AP Poll doesn't make explicit predictions, but we can infer: if Team A is ranked higher than Team B, the AP Poll "predicts" Team A should win.

Based on voter opinions
Higher rank = predicted winner
Unranked teams not compared
Updated weekly